Obama Versus Clinton Continues

The delegate count at this point varies on who you consult. This source from The Wall Street Journal gives Clinton a narrow advantage, but with no candidate having a clear majority. As the article does points out, determining a Democratic nominee ASAP is in the best interest of the party and every Progressive.

Unmentioned in the article is the fact that three states and one U.S. governed territory are voting today in either primaries or caucuses. They are:

• Louisiana
• Nebraska
• Washington (state of)
• The U.S. Virgin Islands

Obama is favored to win Louisiana, due to its large African-American population. He won Georgia and Alabama on Tuesday, both also states with substantial black populations. Clinton's only wins in the South were in Arkansas (one of her TWO "home states") and Tennessee, where black population is limited largely to extreme Western Tennessee, particularly the city of Memphis, which Obama won handily. The Senator from Illinois ran well in Middle America and is projected to win Nebraska. On Tuesday, he captured neighboring Kansas handily, even narrowly winning its immediate neighbor to the east, Missouri, which he was not projected to win. Lest we forget, in those long ago days of a month ago, Obama won a stunning upset in Iowa which started this process going. Senator Obama is also projected to win Washington, which is an overwhelmingly liberal state where environmental issues are extremely important to Washingtonian residents. He won Colorado easily, whose focus on eco-friendly policies is very similar to Washington. Furthermore, Obama won neighboring Idaho by a landslide.

Tomorrow, Maine votes and Hillary Clinton has in recent weeks had a substantial advantage in the Northeast. She captured every Northeast state thus far except for Connecticut. She won New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. However, Obama won Delaware, which is a Mid-Atlantic state bordering New Jersey and home to multi-term Senator Joe Biden.

By Monday, the delegate count is likely to not have moved substantially in favor of either Hillary or Barack.

Tuesday, two states and one district vote. They are:

• the District of Columbia
• Virginia
• Maryland

Obama leads Virginia by double digits. He leads in Maryland as well, and the substantial African-American population of our nation's capital gives him a lead in the District of Columbia as well.

A week after that, two states vote. They are:

• Wisconsin
• Hawaii

Before Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton had a narrow lead in Wisconsin, but this state will be a heavily contested one. Obama won neighboring Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and his home state of Illinois. Hawaii is firmly in support of Obama since it is considered one of his unofficial home states since it is the state of his birth.

This is just for the rest of the month of February! If no candidate is decided by then, we will be into March and the six primaries and caucuses held then. If neither Obama nor Clinton has a substantial share of delegates and no candidate is decided by then, then the absolute last primary/caucus is 7 June when Puerto Rico's caucus is held.

The Democratic convention in Denver is not until 25 August! Going back to the article above, it is much to the benefit of the DLC, the Democratic party, Progressives, and all who want to see a Democratic candidate elected need to have a presumptive nominee selected far sooner than that. Waiting until August could easily become an extremely nasty convention fight. John Edwards has not picked a side and my thinking is that if he is smart, he is playing Clinton against Obama, trying to determine what candidate will give him the best deal. One thinks he would be ideologically more in tune with Obama, but if Clinton either gives him the better deal or takes momentum, he would likely throw his support behind her rather than Obama.

Perhaps the most telling sign is the overall polling data that pits the mood of the country when Clinton is compared to Obama in public opinion.

Polling Data Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Spread RCP Average 01/30 - 02/07 - 44.9 42.0 Clinton +2.9 Newsweek 02/06 - 02/07 602 RV 41 42 Obama +1.0 Gallup Tracking 02/05 - 02/07 1215 LV 49 42 Clinton +7.0 Rasmussen Tracking 02/04 - 02/07 900 LV 47 43 Clinton +4.0 Time 02/01 - 02/04 439 LV 48 42 Clinton +6.0 CNN 02/01 - 02/03 500 RV 46 49 Obama +3.0 Cook/RT Strategies 01/31 - 02/02 376 RV 37 43 Obama +6.0 Pew Research 01/30 - 02/02 596 RV 46 38 Clinton +8.0 USA Today/Gallup 01/30 - 02/02 985 LV 45 44 Clinton +1.0 CBS News/NY Times 01/30 - 02/02 491 LV 41 41 Tie ABC/Wash Post 01/30 - 02/01 LV 47 43 Clinton +4.0 FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 377 LV 47 37 Clinton +10.0 NBC/WSJ 01/20 - 01/22 Adults 47 32 Clinton +15.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 01/18 - 01/22 532 LV 42 33 Clinton +9.0 Rasmussen 01/16 - 01/19 900 LV 38 34 Clinton +4.0 AP-Ipsos 01/15 - 01/17 453 RV 40 33 Clinton +7.0 CNN 01/14 - 01/17 448 RV 42 33 Clinton +9.0 USA Today/Gallup 01/11 - 01/13 1021 LV 45 33 Clinton +12.0 Reuters/Zogby 01/11 - 01/13 459 LV 39 38 Clinton +1.0 Pew Research 01/09 - 01/13 621 RV 46 31 Clinton +15.0 Hotline/FD 01/10 - 01/12 380 LV 38 35 Clinton +3.0 CBS News/NY Times 01/09 - 01/12 508 LV 42 27 Clinton +15.0 ABC/Wash Post 01/09 - 01/12 423 LV 42 37 Clinton +5.0 CNN 01/09 - 01/10 443 RV 49 36 Clinton +13.0 USA Today/Gallup 01/04 - 01/06 499 A 33 33 Tie Rasmussen 01/03 - 01/06 900 LV 33 29 Clinton +4.0 Pew Research 12/19 - 12/30 556 RV 46 26 Clinton +20.0 FOX News 12/18 - 12/19 RV 49 20 Clinton +29.0 Cook/RT Strategies 12/15 - 12/17 RV 38 26 Clinton +12.0 NBC/WSJ 12/14 - 12/17 Adults 45 23 Clinton +22.0 USA Today/Gallup 12/14 - 12/16 513 A 45 27 Clinton +18.0 Rasmussen 12/13 - 12/16 750 LV 40 27 Clinton +13.0 Reuters/Zogby 12/12 - 12/14 436 LV 40 32 Clinton +8.0 Hotline/FD 12/10 - 12/14 336 LV 35 30 Clinton +5.0 ARG 12/09 - 12/12 600 LV 41 22 Clinton +19.0 Battleground 12/09 - 12/12 LV 47 23 Clinton +24.0 CNN 12/06 - 12/09 RV 40 30 Clinton +10.0 ABC/Wash Post 12/06 - 12/09 429 LV 53 23 Clinton +30.0 CBS News/NY Times 12/05 - 12/09 417 LV 44 27 Clinton +17.0 AP-Ipsos 12/03 - 12/05 469 RV 45 23 Clinton +22.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 11/30 - 12/03 529 LV 45 21 Clinton +24.0 USA Today/Gallup 11/30 - 12/02 494 A 39 24 Clinton +15.0 Rasmussen 11/28 - 12/01 750 LV 37 24 Clinton +13.0 AP-Pew 11/20 - 11/26 467 LV 48 22 Clinton +26.0 Rasmussen 11/15 - 11/18 750 LV 41 24 Clinton +17.0 Reuters/Zogby 11/14 - 11/17 545 LV 38 27 Clinton +11.0 FOX News 11/13 - 11/14 397 RV 44 23 Clinton +21.0 Gallup 11/11 - 11/14 485 A 48 21 Clinton +27.0 American Res. Group 11/09 - 11/12 600 LV 46 21 Clinton +25.0 Cook/RT Strategies 11/08 - 11/11 376 RV 39 22 Clinton +17.0 AP-Ipsos 11/05 - 11/07 474 RV 45 22 Clinton +23.0 NBC/WSJ 11/01 - 11/05 Adults 47 25 Clinton +22.0 CNN 11/02 - 11/04 467 RV 44 25 Clinton +19.0 USA Today/Gallup 11/02 - 11/04 508 RV 50 22 Clinton +28.0 Rasmussen 11/01 - 11/04 750 LV 41 22 Clinton +19.0 Newsweek 10/31 - 11/01 433 RV 43 24 Clinton +19.0 ABC/Wash Post 10/29 - 11/01 598 A 49 26 Clinton +23.0 Marist 10/29 - 11/01 385 RV 48 17 Clinton +31.0 Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/29 742 RV 47 21 Clinton +26.0 Zogby 10/24 - 10/27 527 LV 38 24 Clinton +14.0 FOX News 10/23 - 10/24 329 RV 42 25 Clinton +17.0 Pew Research 10/17 - 10/23 837 RV 45 24 Clinton +21.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 10/19 - 10/22 469 LV 48 17 Clinton +31.0 Rasmussen 10/18 - 10/21 750 LV 49 22 Clinton +27.0 CBS News* 10/12 - 10/16 456 RV 51 23 Clinton +28.0 USA Today/Gallup 10/12 - 10/14 500 A 50 21 Clinton +29.0 CNN 10/12 - 10/14 485 RV 51 21 Clinton +30.0 Reuters/Zogby 10/10 - 10/14 426 LV 46 25 Clinton +21.0 American Res. Group 10/09 - 10/12 600 LV 45 20 Clinton +25.0 FOX News 10/09 - 10/10 377 LV 50 18 Clinton +32.0 Rasmussen 10/04 - 10/07 750 LV 42 26 Clinton +16.0 Gallup 10/04 - 10/07 488 A 47 26 Clinton +21.0 AP-Ipsos 10/01 - 10/03 482 A 46 25 Clinton +21.0 ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/30 592 A 53 20 Clinton +33.0 AP-Ipsos 09/21 - 09/25 631 A 40 26 Clinton +14.0 Rasmussen 09/20 - 09/23 750 LV 40 28 Clinton +12.0 CBS News* 09/14 - 09/16 Adults 43 22 Clinton +21.0 Gallup 09/14 - 09/16 531 A 47 25 Clinton +22.0 Reuters/Zogby 09/13 - 09/16 LV 35 21 Clinton +14.0 Pew Research 09/12 - 09/16 568 RV 42 25 Clinton +17.0 Cook/RT Strategies 09/13 - 09/15 405 RV 36 23 Clinton +13.0 FOX News 09/11 - 09/12 396 RV 43 24 Clinton +19.0 AP-Ipsos 09/10 - 09/12 482 RV 43 23 Clinton +20.0 American Res. Group 09/09 - 09/12 600 LV 39 21 Clinton +18.0 NBC/WSJ 09/07 - 09/10 Adults 44 23 Clinton +21.0 CNN 09/07 - 09/09 Adults 46 23 Clinton +23.0 NYT/CBS News* 09/04 - 09/09 Adults 44 26 Clinton +18.0 USA Today/Gallup 09/07 - 09/08 500 LV 45 24 Clinton +21.0 Rasmussen 09/05 - 09/08 750 LV 43 22 Clinton +21.0 ABC News/Wash Post 09/04 - 09/07 Adults 41 27 Clinton +14.0 Rasmussen 08/23 - 08/26 750 LV 40 21 Clinton +19.0 FOX News 08/21 - 08/22 335 LV 35 23 Clinton +12.0 Gallup 08/13 - 08/16 Adults 42 21 Clinton +21.0 Quinnipiac 08/07 - 08/13 717 LV 36 21 Clinton +15.0 Rasmussen 08/09 - 08/12 750 LV 43 23 Clinton +20.0 American Res. Group 08/09 - 08/12 600 LV 36 21 Clinton +15.0 CBS News* 08/08 - 08/12 492 LV 45 25 Clinton +20.0 CNN 08/06 - 08/07 RV 40 21 Clinton +19.0 USA Today/Gallup 08/03 - 08/05 490 A 42 19 Clinton +23.0 Cook/RT Strategies 08/02 - 08/05 376 RV 39 21 Clinton +18.0 Newsweek 08/01 - 08/01 422 RV 44 23 Clinton +21.0 NBC/WSJ 07/27 - 07/30 481 A 43 22 Clinton +21.0 Rasmussen 07/26 - 07/29 750 LV 40 24 Clinton +16.0 Pew Research 07/25 - 07/29 623 RV 40 21 Clinton +19.0 Hotline/FD 07/19 - 07/22 RV 39 30 Clinton +9.0 ABC News/Wash Post 07/18 - 07/21 Adults 39 28 Clinton +11.0 FOX News 07/17 - 07/18 RV 39 23 Clinton +16.0 CBS News/NY Times* 07/09 - 07/17 LV 43 24 Clinton +19.0 Gallup 07/12 - 07/15 483 A 34 25 Clinton +9.0 Rasmussen 07/09 - 07/15 1300 LV 38 25 Clinton +13.0 Zogby 07/12 - 07/14 396 LV 37 25 Clinton +12.0 American Res. Group 07/09 - 07/12 600 LV 38 25 Clinton +13.0 AP-Ipsos 07/09 - 07/11 Adults 36 20 Clinton +16.0 USA Today/Gallup 07/06 - 07/08 516 RV 37 21 Clinton +16.0 CBS News/NY Times* 06/26 - 06/28 336 LV 48 24 Clinton +24.0 Rasmussen 06/25 - 06/28 769 LV 39 26 Clinton +13.0 FOX News 06/26 - 06/27 RV 42 19 Clinton +23.0 CNN 06/22 - 06/24 450 RV 35 23 Clinton +12.0 Cook/RT Strategies 06/21 - 06/23 378 RV 32 22 Clinton +10.0 Newsweek 06/20 - 06/21 422 RV 43 27 Clinton +16.0 Rasmussen 06/18 - 06/21 763 LV 37 25 Clinton +12.0 Cook/RT Strategies 06/15 - 06/17 380 RV 30 20 Clinton +10.0 USA Today/Gallup 06/11 - 06/14 1007 A 33 21 Clinton +12.0 Rasmussen 06/11 - 06/14 775 LV 38 27 Clinton +11.0 American Res. Group 06/09 - 06/12 600 LV 39 19 Clinton +20.0 NBC/WSJ 06/08 - 06/11 Adults 39 25 Clinton +14.0 Quinnipiac 06/05 - 06/11 789 LV 35 21 Clinton +14.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 06/07 - 06/10 449 LV 33 22 Clinton +11.0 Rasmussen 06/04 - 06/07 773 LV 37 25 Clinton +12.0 FOX News 06/05 - 06/06 RV 36 23 Clinton +13.0 AP-Ipsos 06/04 - 06/06 541 LV 33 21 Clinton +12.0 USA Today/Gallup 06/01 - 06/03 470 LV 29 30 Obama +1.0 ABC News/Wash Post 05/29 - 06/01 1205 Adults 35 23 Clinton +12.0 Rasmussen 05/29 - 05/31 738 LV 34 26 Clinton +8.0 Rasmussen 05/21 - 05/23 559 LV 35 26 Clinton +9.0 NYT/CBS News* 05/18 - 05/23 441 LV 46 24 Clinton +22.0 Zogby 05/17 - 05/20 411 RV 39 24 Clinton +15.0 Hotline/FD 05/16 - 05/20 261 LV 31 21 Clinton +10.0 Rasmussen 05/14 - 05/17 788 LV 35 25 Clinton +10.0 FOX News 05/15 - 05/16 900 RV 35 20 Clinton +15.0 Cook/RT Strategies 05/11 - 05/13 402 RV 32 24 Clinton +8.0 Gallup 05/10 - 05/13 489 LV 35 26 Clinton +9.0 American Res. Group 05/09 - 05/12 600 LV 39 22 Clinton +17.0 Rasmussen 05/07 - 05/10 789 LV 35 33 Clinton +2.0 CNN/Opinion Research 05/04 - 05/06 454 RV 38 24 Clinton +14.0 USA Today/Gallup 05/04 - 05/06 491 RV 38 23 Clinton +15.0 Rasmussen 04/30 - 05/03 760 LV 34 26 Clinton +8.0 Marist 04/26 - 05/01 392 RV 35 17 Clinton +18.0 Quinnipiac 04/25 - 05/01 499 RV 32 18 Clinton +14.0 Cook/RT Strategies 04/27 - 04/30 389 RV 32 24 Clinton +8.0 Rasmussen 04/23 - 04/26 765 LV 30 32 Obama +2.0 NBC/WSJ 04/20 - 04/23 Adults 36 31 Clinton +5.0 Pew Research 04/18 - 04/22 574 RV 34 24 Clinton +10.0 Rasmussen 04/16 - 04/19 579 LV 32 32 Tie FOX News 04/17 - 04/18 RV 41 20 Clinton +21.0 USA Today/Gallup 04/13 - 04/15 504 RV 31 26 Clinton +5.0 ABC News/Wash Post 04/12 - 04/15 Adults 37 20 Clinton +17.0 CNN 04/10 - 04/12 RV 30 26 Clinton +4.0 American Res. Group 04/09 - 04/12 600 LV 36 24 Clinton +12.0 CBS News* 04/09 - 04/12 392 RV 39 24 Clinton +15.0 Rasmussen 04/09 - 04/12 774 LV 32 30 Clinton +2.0 LA Times/Bloomberg 04/05 - 04/09 557 RV 33 23 Clinton +10.0 Time 04/05 - 04/09 493 RV 33 26 Clinton +7.0 Rasmussen 04/02 - 04/05 774 LV 34 29 Clinton +5.0 Gallup 04/02 - 04/05 491 A 38 19 Clinton +19.0 Cook/RT Strategies 03/29 - 04/01 355 RV 41 17 Clinton +24.0 Rasmussen 03/26 - 03/29 799 LV 33 26 Clinton +7.0 FOX News 03/27 - 03/28 RV 36 18 Clinton +18.0 Time 03/23 - 03/26 511 RV 31 24 Clinton +7.0 Zogby 03/22 - 03/26 432 LV 32 22 Clinton +10.0 USA Today/Gallup 03/23 - 03/25 493 A 35 22 Clinton +13.0 Pew Research 03/21 - 03/25 614 RV 35 26 Clinton +9.0 Rasmussen 03/19 - 03/22 757 LV 37 25 Clinton +12.0 Rasmussen 03/12 - 03/15 790 LV 35 30 Clinton +5.0 Time 03/09 - 03/12 682 RV 34 26 Clinton +8.0 CNN 03/09 - 03/11 447 RV 37 22 Clinton +15.0 Rasmussen 03/05 - 03/08 783 LV 38 26 Clinton +12.0 AP-Ipsos 03/05 - 03/07 RV 38 21 Clinton +17.0 NBC/WSJ 03/02 - 03/05 Adults 40 28 Clinton +12.0 American Res. Group 03/02 - 03/05 600 LV 34 31 Clinton +3.0 USA Today/Gallup 03/02 - 03/04 482 A 36 22 Clinton +14.0 Rasmussen 02/26 - 03/01 769 LV 34 26 Clinton +8.0 FOX News 02/27 - 02/28 RV 34 23 Clinton +11.0 Time 02/23 - 02/26 RV 36 24 Clinton +12.0 ABC News/Wash Post 02/22 - 02/25 Adults 36 24 Clinton +12.0 Zogby 02/22 - 02/24 LV 33 25 Clinton +8.0 Rasmussen 02/19 - 02/22 568 LV 37 26 Clinton +11.0 Quinnipiac 02/13 - 02/19 684 RV 38 23 Clinton +15.0 Cook/RT Strategies 02/15 - 02/18 390 RV 42 20 Clinton +22.0 Marist 02/12 - 02/15 471 RV 37 17 Clinton +20.0 USA Today/Gallup 02/09 - 02/11 495 A 40 21 Clinton +19.0 Siena 02/06 - 02/09 RV 45 12 Clinton +33.0 Rasmussen 02/05 - 02/08 435 LV 28 23 Clinton +5.0 Rasmussen 01/29 - 02/03 448 LV 34 18 Clinton +16.0 FOX News 01/30 - 01/31 RV 43 15 Clinton +28.0 Rasmussen 01/22 - 01/25 435 LV 33 19 Clinton +14.0 Time 01/22 - 01/23 480 RV 40 21 Clinton +19.0 CNN 01/19 - 01/21 467 RV 34 18 Clinton +16.0 ABC News/Wash Post 01/16 - 01/19 561 A 41 17 Clinton +24.0 Rasmussen 01/15 - 01/18 386 LV 31 24 Clinton +7.0 Gallup 01/12 - 01/14 1003 A 29 18 Clinton +11.0 Rasmussen 01/08 - 01/11 401 LV 22 21 Clinton +1.0 Zogby 01/05 - 01/09 339 LV 29 14 Clinton +15.0 Gallup 12/11 - 12/14 511 A 33 20 Clinton +13.0 NBC/WSJ 12/08 - 12/11 1006 A 37 18 Clinton +19.0 ABC News/Wash Post 12/07 - 12/11 1005 A 39 17 Clinton +22.0 CNN 12/05 - 12/07 612 RV 37 15 Clinton +22.0 FOX News 12/05 - 12/06 900 RV 33 12 Clinton +21.0 Marist 11/27 - 12/03 RV 33 12 Clinton +21.0 CNN 11/17 - 11/19 RV 33 15 Clinton +18.0 Cook/RT Strategies 11/09 - 11/12 RV 34 20 Clinton +14.0 Pew Research 11/09 - 11/12 RV 39 23 Clinton +16.0 Gallup 11/09 - 11/12 A 31 19 Clinton +12.0 McLaughlin & Associates (R) 11/07 - 11/07 LV 27 21 Clinton +6.0 CNN 10/27 - 10/29 RV 28 17 Clinton +11.0

Obama has the momentum, the support of the mainstream media, and an edge in fund raising. Look how far he has come! Look at how far down he once was! This is clearly his race to lose.