Saturday, February 09, 2008

Obama Versus Clinton Continues

The delegate count at this point varies on who you consult. This source from The Wall Street Journal gives Clinton a narrow advantage, but with no candidate having a clear majority. As the article does points out, determining a Democratic nominee ASAP is in the best interest of the party and every Progressive.

Unmentioned in the article is the fact that three states and one U.S. governed territory are voting today in either primaries or caucuses. They are:

  • Louisiana
  • Nebraska
  • Washington (state of)
  • The U.S. Virgin Islands
Obama is favored to win Louisiana, due to its large African-American population. He won Georgia and Alabama on Tuesday, both also states with substantial black populations. Clinton's only wins in the South were in Arkansas (one of her TWO "home states") and Tennessee, where black population is limited largely to extreme Western Tennessee, particularly the city of Memphis, which Obama won handily. The Senator from Illinois ran well in Middle America and is projected to win Nebraska. On Tuesday, he captured neighboring Kansas handily, even narrowly winning its immediate neighbor to the east, Missouri, which he was not projected to win. Lest we forget, in those long ago days of a month ago, Obama won a stunning upset in Iowa which started this process going. Senator Obama is also projected to win Washington, which is an overwhelmingly liberal state where environmental issues are extremely important to Washingtonian residents. He won Colorado easily, whose focus on eco-friendly policies is very similar to Washington. Furthermore, Obama won neighboring Idaho by a landslide.

Tomorrow, Maine votes and Hillary Clinton has in recent weeks had a substantial advantage in the Northeast. She captured every Northeast state thus far except for Connecticut. She won New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. However, Obama won Delaware, which is a Mid-Atlantic state bordering New Jersey and home to multi-term Senator Joe Biden.

By Monday, the delegate count is likely to not have moved substantially in favor of either Hillary or Barack.

Tuesday, two states and one district vote. They are:
  • the District of Columbia
  • Virginia
  • Maryland
Obama leads Virginia by double digits. He leads in Maryland as well, and the substantial African-American population of our nation's capital gives him a lead in the District of Columbia as well.

A week after that, two states vote. They are:

  • Wisconsin
  • Hawaii
Before Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton had a narrow lead in Wisconsin, but this state will be a heavily contested one. Obama won neighboring Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, and his home state of Illinois. Hawaii is firmly in support of Obama since it is considered one of his unofficial home states since it is the state of his birth.

This is just for the rest of the month of February! If no candidate is decided by then, we will be into March and the six primaries and caucuses held then. If neither Obama nor Clinton has a substantial share of delegates and no candidate is decided by then, then the absolute last primary/caucus is 7 June when Puerto Rico's caucus is held.

The Democratic convention in Denver is not until 25 August! Going back to the article above, it is much to the benefit of the DLC, the Democratic party, Progressives, and all who want to see a Democratic candidate elected need to have a presumptive nominee selected far sooner than that. Waiting until August could easily become an extremely nasty convention fight. John Edwards has not picked a side and my thinking is that if he is smart, he is playing Clinton against Obama, trying to determine what candidate will give him the best deal. One thinks he would be ideologically more in tune with Obama, but if Clinton either gives him the better deal or takes momentum, he would likely throw his support behind her rather than Obama.

Perhaps the most telling sign is the overall polling data that pits the mood of the country when Clinton is compared to Obama in public opinion.

Polling Data
PollDateSampleClintonObamaSpread
RCP Average01/30 - 02/07-44.942.0Clinton +2.9
Newsweek02/06 - 02/07602 RV4142Obama +1.0
Gallup Tracking02/05 - 02/071215 LV4942Clinton +7.0
Rasmussen Tracking02/04 - 02/07900 LV4743Clinton +4.0
Time02/01 - 02/04439 LV4842Clinton +6.0
CNN02/01 - 02/03500 RV4649Obama +3.0
Cook/RT Strategies01/31 - 02/02376 RV3743Obama +6.0
Pew Research01/30 - 02/02596 RV4638Clinton +8.0
USA Today/Gallup01/30 - 02/02985 LV4544Clinton +1.0
CBS News/NY Times01/30 - 02/02491 LV4141Tie
ABC/Wash Post01/30 - 02/01LV4743Clinton +4.0
FOX News01/30 - 01/31377 LV4737Clinton +10.0
NBC/WSJ01/20 - 01/22Adults4732Clinton +15.0
LA Times/Bloomberg01/18 - 01/22532 LV4233Clinton +9.0
Rasmussen01/16 - 01/19900 LV3834Clinton +4.0
AP-Ipsos01/15 - 01/17453 RV4033Clinton +7.0
CNN01/14 - 01/17448 RV4233Clinton +9.0
USA Today/Gallup01/11 - 01/131021 LV4533Clinton +12.0
Reuters/Zogby01/11 - 01/13459 LV3938Clinton +1.0
Pew Research01/09 - 01/13621 RV4631Clinton +15.0
Hotline/FD01/10 - 01/12380 LV3835Clinton +3.0
CBS News/NY Times01/09 - 01/12508 LV4227Clinton +15.0
ABC/Wash Post01/09 - 01/12423 LV4237Clinton +5.0
CNN01/09 - 01/10443 RV4936Clinton +13.0
USA Today/Gallup01/04 - 01/06499 A3333Tie
Rasmussen01/03 - 01/06900 LV3329Clinton +4.0
Pew Research12/19 - 12/30556 RV4626Clinton +20.0
FOX News12/18 - 12/19RV4920Clinton +29.0
Cook/RT Strategies12/15 - 12/17RV3826Clinton +12.0
NBC/WSJ12/14 - 12/17Adults4523Clinton +22.0
USA Today/Gallup12/14 - 12/16513 A4527Clinton +18.0
Rasmussen12/13 - 12/16750 LV4027Clinton +13.0
Reuters/Zogby12/12 - 12/14436 LV4032Clinton +8.0
Hotline/FD12/10 - 12/14336 LV3530Clinton +5.0
ARG12/09 - 12/12600 LV4122Clinton +19.0
Battleground12/09 - 12/12LV4723Clinton +24.0
CNN12/06 - 12/09RV4030Clinton +10.0
ABC/Wash Post12/06 - 12/09429 LV5323Clinton +30.0
CBS News/NY Times12/05 - 12/09417 LV4427Clinton +17.0
AP-Ipsos12/03 - 12/05469 RV4523Clinton +22.0
LA Times/Bloomberg11/30 - 12/03529 LV4521Clinton +24.0
USA Today/Gallup11/30 - 12/02494 A3924Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen11/28 - 12/01750 LV3724Clinton +13.0
AP-Pew11/20 - 11/26467 LV4822Clinton +26.0
Rasmussen11/15 - 11/18750 LV4124Clinton +17.0
Reuters/Zogby11/14 - 11/17545 LV3827Clinton +11.0
FOX News11/13 - 11/14397 RV4423Clinton +21.0
Gallup11/11 - 11/14485 A4821Clinton +27.0
American Res. Group11/09 - 11/12600 LV4621Clinton +25.0
Cook/RT Strategies11/08 - 11/11376 RV3922Clinton +17.0
AP-Ipsos11/05 - 11/07474 RV4522Clinton +23.0
NBC/WSJ11/01 - 11/05Adults4725Clinton +22.0
CNN11/02 - 11/04467 RV4425Clinton +19.0
USA Today/Gallup11/02 - 11/04508 RV5022Clinton +28.0
Rasmussen11/01 - 11/04750 LV4122Clinton +19.0
Newsweek10/31 - 11/01433 RV4324Clinton +19.0
ABC/Wash Post10/29 - 11/01598 A4926Clinton +23.0
Marist10/29 - 11/01385 RV4817Clinton +31.0
Quinnipiac10/23 - 10/29742 RV4721Clinton +26.0
Zogby10/24 - 10/27527 LV3824Clinton +14.0
FOX News10/23 - 10/24329 RV4225Clinton +17.0
Pew Research10/17 - 10/23837 RV4524Clinton +21.0
LA Times/Bloomberg10/19 - 10/22469 LV4817Clinton +31.0
Rasmussen10/18 - 10/21750 LV4922Clinton +27.0
CBS News*10/12 - 10/16456 RV5123Clinton +28.0
USA Today/Gallup10/12 - 10/14500 A5021Clinton +29.0
CNN10/12 - 10/14485 RV5121Clinton +30.0
Reuters/Zogby10/10 - 10/14426 LV4625Clinton +21.0
American Res. Group10/09 - 10/12600 LV4520Clinton +25.0
FOX News10/09 - 10/10377 LV5018Clinton +32.0
Rasmussen10/04 - 10/07750 LV4226Clinton +16.0
Gallup10/04 - 10/07488 A4726Clinton +21.0
AP-Ipsos10/01 - 10/03482 A4625Clinton +21.0
ABC News/Wash Post09/27 - 09/30592 A5320Clinton +33.0
AP-Ipsos09/21 - 09/25631 A4026Clinton +14.0
Rasmussen09/20 - 09/23750 LV4028Clinton +12.0
CBS News*09/14 - 09/16Adults4322Clinton +21.0
Gallup09/14 - 09/16531 A4725Clinton +22.0
Reuters/Zogby09/13 - 09/16LV3521Clinton +14.0
Pew Research09/12 - 09/16568 RV4225Clinton +17.0
Cook/RT Strategies09/13 - 09/15405 RV3623Clinton +13.0
FOX News09/11 - 09/12396 RV4324Clinton +19.0
AP-Ipsos09/10 - 09/12482 RV4323Clinton +20.0
American Res. Group09/09 - 09/12600 LV3921Clinton +18.0
NBC/WSJ09/07 - 09/10Adults4423Clinton +21.0
CNN09/07 - 09/09Adults4623Clinton +23.0
NYT/CBS News*09/04 - 09/09Adults4426Clinton +18.0
USA Today/Gallup09/07 - 09/08500 LV4524Clinton +21.0
Rasmussen09/05 - 09/08750 LV4322Clinton +21.0
ABC News/Wash Post09/04 - 09/07Adults4127Clinton +14.0
Rasmussen08/23 - 08/26750 LV4021Clinton +19.0
FOX News08/21 - 08/22335 LV3523Clinton +12.0
Gallup08/13 - 08/16Adults4221Clinton +21.0
Quinnipiac08/07 - 08/13717 LV3621Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen08/09 - 08/12750 LV4323Clinton +20.0
American Res. Group08/09 - 08/12600 LV3621Clinton +15.0
CBS News*08/08 - 08/12492 LV4525Clinton +20.0
CNN08/06 - 08/07RV4021Clinton +19.0
USA Today/Gallup08/03 - 08/05490 A4219Clinton +23.0
Cook/RT Strategies08/02 - 08/05376 RV3921Clinton +18.0
Newsweek08/01 - 08/01422 RV4423Clinton +21.0
NBC/WSJ07/27 - 07/30481 A4322Clinton +21.0
Rasmussen07/26 - 07/29750 LV4024Clinton +16.0
Pew Research07/25 - 07/29623 RV4021Clinton +19.0
Hotline/FD07/19 - 07/22RV3930Clinton +9.0
ABC News/Wash Post07/18 - 07/21Adults3928Clinton +11.0
FOX News07/17 - 07/18RV3923Clinton +16.0
CBS News/NY Times*07/09 - 07/17LV4324Clinton +19.0
Gallup07/12 - 07/15483 A3425Clinton +9.0
Rasmussen07/09 - 07/151300 LV3825Clinton +13.0
Zogby07/12 - 07/14396 LV3725Clinton +12.0
American Res. Group07/09 - 07/12600 LV3825Clinton +13.0
AP-Ipsos07/09 - 07/11Adults3620Clinton +16.0
USA Today/Gallup07/06 - 07/08516 RV3721Clinton +16.0
CBS News/NY Times*06/26 - 06/28336 LV4824Clinton +24.0
Rasmussen06/25 - 06/28769 LV3926Clinton +13.0
FOX News06/26 - 06/27RV4219Clinton +23.0
CNN06/22 - 06/24450 RV3523Clinton +12.0
Cook/RT Strategies06/21 - 06/23378 RV3222Clinton +10.0
Newsweek06/20 - 06/21422 RV4327Clinton +16.0
Rasmussen06/18 - 06/21763 LV3725Clinton +12.0
Cook/RT Strategies06/15 - 06/17380 RV3020Clinton +10.0
USA Today/Gallup06/11 - 06/141007 A3321Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen06/11 - 06/14775 LV3827Clinton +11.0
American Res. Group06/09 - 06/12600 LV3919Clinton +20.0
NBC/WSJ06/08 - 06/11Adults3925Clinton +14.0
Quinnipiac06/05 - 06/11789 LV3521Clinton +14.0
LA Times/Bloomberg06/07 - 06/10449 LV3322Clinton +11.0
Rasmussen06/04 - 06/07773 LV3725Clinton +12.0
FOX News06/05 - 06/06RV3623Clinton +13.0
AP-Ipsos06/04 - 06/06541 LV3321Clinton +12.0
USA Today/Gallup06/01 - 06/03470 LV2930Obama +1.0
ABC News/Wash Post05/29 - 06/011205 Adults3523Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen05/29 - 05/31738 LV3426Clinton +8.0
Rasmussen05/21 - 05/23559 LV3526Clinton +9.0
NYT/CBS News*05/18 - 05/23441 LV4624Clinton +22.0
Zogby05/17 - 05/20411 RV3924Clinton +15.0
Hotline/FD05/16 - 05/20261 LV3121Clinton +10.0
Rasmussen05/14 - 05/17788 LV3525Clinton +10.0
FOX News05/15 - 05/16900 RV3520Clinton +15.0
Cook/RT Strategies05/11 - 05/13402 RV3224Clinton +8.0
Gallup05/10 - 05/13489 LV3526Clinton +9.0
American Res. Group05/09 - 05/12600 LV3922Clinton +17.0
Rasmussen05/07 - 05/10789 LV3533Clinton +2.0
CNN/Opinion Research05/04 - 05/06454 RV3824Clinton +14.0
USA Today/Gallup05/04 - 05/06491 RV3823Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen04/30 - 05/03760 LV3426Clinton +8.0
Marist04/26 - 05/01392 RV3517Clinton +18.0
Quinnipiac04/25 - 05/01499 RV3218Clinton +14.0
Cook/RT Strategies04/27 - 04/30389 RV3224Clinton +8.0
Rasmussen04/23 - 04/26765 LV3032Obama +2.0
NBC/WSJ04/20 - 04/23Adults3631Clinton +5.0
Pew Research04/18 - 04/22574 RV3424Clinton +10.0
Rasmussen04/16 - 04/19579 LV3232Tie
FOX News04/17 - 04/18RV4120Clinton +21.0
USA Today/Gallup04/13 - 04/15504 RV3126Clinton +5.0
ABC News/Wash Post04/12 - 04/15Adults3720Clinton +17.0
CNN04/10 - 04/12RV3026Clinton +4.0
American Res. Group04/09 - 04/12600 LV3624Clinton +12.0
CBS News*04/09 - 04/12392 RV3924Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen04/09 - 04/12774 LV3230Clinton +2.0
LA Times/Bloomberg04/05 - 04/09557 RV3323Clinton +10.0
Time04/05 - 04/09493 RV3326Clinton +7.0
Rasmussen04/02 - 04/05774 LV3429Clinton +5.0
Gallup04/02 - 04/05491 A3819Clinton +19.0
Cook/RT Strategies03/29 - 04/01355 RV4117Clinton +24.0
Rasmussen03/26 - 03/29799 LV3326Clinton +7.0
FOX News03/27 - 03/28RV3618Clinton +18.0
Time03/23 - 03/26511 RV3124Clinton +7.0
Zogby03/22 - 03/26432 LV3222Clinton +10.0
USA Today/Gallup03/23 - 03/25493 A3522Clinton +13.0
Pew Research03/21 - 03/25614 RV3526Clinton +9.0
Rasmussen03/19 - 03/22757 LV3725Clinton +12.0
Rasmussen03/12 - 03/15790 LV3530Clinton +5.0
Time03/09 - 03/12682 RV3426Clinton +8.0
CNN03/09 - 03/11447 RV3722Clinton +15.0
Rasmussen03/05 - 03/08783 LV3826Clinton +12.0
AP-Ipsos03/05 - 03/07RV3821Clinton +17.0
NBC/WSJ03/02 - 03/05Adults4028Clinton +12.0
American Res. Group03/02 - 03/05600 LV3431Clinton +3.0
USA Today/Gallup03/02 - 03/04482 A3622Clinton +14.0
Rasmussen02/26 - 03/01769 LV3426Clinton +8.0
FOX News02/27 - 02/28RV3423Clinton +11.0
Time02/23 - 02/26RV3624Clinton +12.0
ABC News/Wash Post02/22 - 02/25Adults3624Clinton +12.0
Zogby02/22 - 02/24LV3325Clinton +8.0
Rasmussen02/19 - 02/22568 LV3726Clinton +11.0
Quinnipiac02/13 - 02/19684 RV3823Clinton +15.0
Cook/RT Strategies02/15 - 02/18390 RV4220Clinton +22.0
Marist02/12 - 02/15471 RV3717Clinton +20.0
USA Today/Gallup02/09 - 02/11495 A4021Clinton +19.0
Siena02/06 - 02/09RV4512Clinton +33.0
Rasmussen02/05 - 02/08435 LV2823Clinton +5.0
Rasmussen01/29 - 02/03448 LV3418Clinton +16.0
FOX News01/30 - 01/31RV4315Clinton +28.0
Rasmussen01/22 - 01/25435 LV3319Clinton +14.0
Time01/22 - 01/23480 RV4021Clinton +19.0
CNN01/19 - 01/21467 RV3418Clinton +16.0
ABC News/Wash Post01/16 - 01/19561 A4117Clinton +24.0
Rasmussen01/15 - 01/18386 LV3124Clinton +7.0
Gallup01/12 - 01/141003 A2918Clinton +11.0
Rasmussen01/08 - 01/11401 LV2221Clinton +1.0
Zogby01/05 - 01/09339 LV2914Clinton +15.0
Gallup12/11 - 12/14511 A3320Clinton +13.0
NBC/WSJ12/08 - 12/111006 A3718Clinton +19.0
ABC News/Wash Post12/07 - 12/111005 A3917Clinton +22.0
CNN12/05 - 12/07612 RV3715Clinton +22.0
FOX News12/05 - 12/06900 RV3312Clinton +21.0
Marist11/27 - 12/03RV3312Clinton +21.0
CNN11/17 - 11/19RV3315Clinton +18.0
Cook/RT Strategies11/09 - 11/12RV3420Clinton +14.0
Pew Research11/09 - 11/12RV3923Clinton +16.0
Gallup11/09 - 11/12A3119Clinton +12.0
McLaughlin & Associates (R)11/07 - 11/07LV2721Clinton +6.0
CNN10/27 - 10/29RV2817Clinton +11.0


Obama has the momentum, the support of the mainstream media, and an edge in fund raising. Look how far he has come! Look at how far down he once was! This is clearly his race to lose.

1 comment:

Boxer rebel said...

I hope you are right that this is Obama's race to lose.

I also came by to say that I have tagged you.