Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Now, Now, Let's Not Be Premature

Hillary Clinton's campaign, while not in turmoil is certain in damage control mode. Readership, Comrade Kevin makes no predictions for many reasons, most of which is that politics varies day to day, as do the odds. As much as I would like to believe the above column, I think it is stretching it, to put it likely that her campaign and her candidacy is bankrupt. What is for sure is that she is predicted to likely not win another primary/caucus victory for the rest of the month and is hinging her bets on Ohio and Texas, both 4 March. Obama is comfortably ahead in today's so-called Chesapeake Primary of Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia and expected to carry all three.

The only chance Clinton has for an upset is in Virginia. Sunday, Wisconsin and Hawaii vote. Until recently, Clinton had a slight edge in Wisconsin, but Obama's overall country-wide momentum has pulled both candidates dead even in that state. Obama is expected to win Hawaii, where he spent most of his early childhood. A win in Wisconsin would cement him as the front runner. Clinton would then have to win Ohio and Texas both by comfortable margins, and if Obama mania persists into next month an air of inevitability (talk about a reverse of fortunes) would rule supreme over Obama's campaign and he would take the nomination.

So while we who support Senator Obama and his bid for the White House cheer him on, let's stay realistic. If he wins the Nomination, let us hope he can respond to the likely negative, Rovian tactics facing him from an extremely desperate GOP reluctantly backing John McCain.

1 comment:

Mauigirl said...

I agree - I am trying not to get my hopes up too far - it is still a ways to the nomination for Obama and Hillary is tough. And then to your point, come the Republicans.